Latest News from Turkey
Turkey's Central Bank Faces Triple Pressure from Iran War
The Iran war has disrupted Türkiye’s economic strategy, with rising energy prices, capital outflows, and falling gold prices eroding reserves. CBRT expected lower inflation and rates but now faces widening deficits and potential rate hikes.
Oil prices surged to $113/barrel from forecasted $60.9.
Foreign Investors Exit Turkish Assets Amid Iran War Fallout
Escalating Iran war tensions caused $12.7 billion outflows via swaps and $5.8 billion from equities/bonds in early March. Record $2.9 billion net sale of government bonds occurred in the week of March 13.
Carry trade positions dropped sharply to $47.2 billion.
CBRT Reserves Plunge Due to War-Related Outflows
Gross reserves fell by $20.7 billion in early March, with total reserves at $189.6 billion as of March 13. Net reserves excluding swaps declined to $54.3 billion from $80 billion in February.
This limits market stabilization efforts.
Energy Price Surge from Iran War Hits Turkey's Economy
Oil at $113/barrel and 85% rise in natural gas prices widen current account deficit and fuel inflation. Strait of Hormuz disruption risks industrial inputs, fertilizers, and logistics costs.
A $10 oil price increase could add $4.5-$5 billion to deficit.
Fitch Warns Prolonged Iran War Raises Risks for Turkey
Fitch states Turkey can absorb short Iran war fallout via reserves and tight policy, but prolonged conflict threatens rating. High oil prices would drive inflation and deficits higher.
Political interference could worsen risks.
TEPAV Report: Hormuz Disruption to Impact Turkish Industry
Strait of Hormuz issues could affect industrial inputs, fertilizers, logistics, and inflation in Turkey. Oil in $90-$100 range pressures budgets.
TEPAV highlights broad economic consequences.
Turkey's Tourism Arrivals Drop 2.08% in March 2026
Foreign arrivals fell 2.08% YoY due to Middle East conflicts, especially impacting Iranian tourism. Geopolitical tensions prompted travel advisories from Germany.
Government pushes infrastructure for diversification.
EU Proposes SEPA Access for Turkey with Conditions
EU's Marta Kos proposed SEPA access to Hakan Fidan, offering savings on euro transfers. Turkey must align with EU payment directive on AML and data protection.
Commission ready to support implementation.
Turkey-EU Discuss CBAM Technical Aspects for Exports
Negotiations covered incorporating Turkey's renewable energy into EU's CBAM methodology for exports. Focus on technical implementation details.
Aims to address carbon border adjustment impacts.
Turkey's Consumer Confidence Index at 85.0 in March
Consumer Confidence Index realized as 85.0 for March 2026 per TurkStat. Calculated from consumer survey results.
Indicates ongoing economic sentiment amid challenges.
Agricultural Producer Prices Rise 40.1% YoY in February
TurkStat reported 0.21% monthly and 40.1% annual increase in Agricultural PPI for February. Reflects input cost pressures amid broader economic strains.
Announced on March 16.