Latest Finance-Economy News
Iran Conflict Triggers Massive Oil Supply Shock, Brent Surges Above $100
Iran's war has caused the largest oil supply shock in market history, pushing Brent crude towards $120 per barrel and WTI near $105, amid US strikes on key export hubs. President Trump demands help from allies including China to secure the Strait of Hormuz, threatening delays in Trump-Xi summit.
This ripples across assets, erasing Treasury gains and boosting inflation fears globally.
China's Economy Surprises with Strong Rebound in Industrial Production
China's February industrial production data shows a robust rebound, supporting commodity demand and easing deflation fears as inflation hits 1.3% YoY, highest since 2023. Consumer and developer sectors brighten outlook, with CSI 300 narrowing losses despite trade tensions.
Authorities reaffirm 4.5-5% GDP target for 2026 amid property crisis and supportive policies.
Trump Threatens Delay in US-China Summit Over Hormuz Support
US-China negotiations in Paris focus on tariffs, exports, and potential agreements impacting commodities and semiconductors, with constructive rhetoric eyed for cyclical sectors. Trump may delay Xi meeting if China refuses aid on Hormuz blockade amid Iran war.
Markets watch for global industrial cycle signals in Q2 2026.
Central Banks Shift Hawkish: RBA Eyes Rate Hike, Fed Holds Steady
RBA likely to hike rates Tuesday to 4.10% (80% probability) as inflation hits 3.8% YoY, signaling serious inflation fight. Fed expected to hold at 3.50-3.75% in March, with rate cuts delayed into late 2026 amid oil-driven inflation.
Other banks like BOJ face yen pressure from hawkish global pivot.
US Economy Shows Slowing Growth Amid Labor Weakness and Inflation Shock
US Q4 GDP revised down to 0.7% annualized, with subdued job openings, weakening labor force, and payrolls near zero after adjustments. Inflation persists above target at 3.0% forecast for 2026 due to tariffs and oil surge, prompting Fed caution.
K-shaped growth persists via AI investment and wealth effects.
Global Inflation Surges, Deflation Fears Recede in China and Australia
China's core inflation rises to 1.8% YoY, NPC sets 2% target with anti-involution measures amid higher oil prices. Australia's headline inflation at 3.8% pre-conflict fuels RBA hike bets.
EU inflation below 2% but Gulf war skews risks upward.
Markets Mixed: Asia Edges Up, US Stocks Decline on Geopolitical Tensions
Asia-Pacific stocks edge higher led by Korea rally, Nikkei and CSI 300 stabilize despite yen pressure and Hormuz risks. US equities mark third weekly decline, Hang Seng resilient with record mainland inflows.
Treasuries erase gains as yields rise on oil shock.
BNPP Forecasts Robust US Growth at 2.9% for 2026 Despite Risks
US economy projected to grow +2.9% in 2026, above potential, driven by AI productivity and wealth effects amid K-shaped divergence. Inflation to hit 3.0% from tariffs and oil, Fed holds rates steady post-2025 cuts.
Gulf war skews growth risks down, inflation up.
Energy Secretary Predicts Oil Price Drop Post-Iran War, SPR Release
Trump secures 400-million-barrel oil release from SPR at record lows to curb prices despite US efforts. Brent holds near $105, gold gains amid choppy session.
Global banks grapple with inflation from energy shock.
China Property Crisis Persists but Exports Strong, Policies Supportive
China's property sector crisis continues with low household confidence, offset by strong exports beyond US. Fiscal/monetary support prioritizes consumption; deflation may ease in 2026 from oil prices.
Competitive goods sustain short-term edge.
EU Growth Underpinned by Fiscal Measures, Military and AI Spending
Germany's fiscal rollout, military spending hike, and AI investments support EU growth amid resilient labor market. Trade tensions with US/China create uncertainty; inflation below 2% target in 2026.
Precarious EU-US trade deal adds risks.
Japanese Stocks Under Pressure Ahead of BOJ Meeting and Oil Decision
Nikkei faces headwinds pre-BOJ policy meet, yen weakens under central bank hawkishness. Japan's oil policy impacts energy sector; focus on global inflation thought process.
Surplus improves via semiconductor boom.