Latest Finance-Economy News
Fed to Hold Rates at 3.50%-3.75% Amid Independence Concerns
The FOMC meeting on January 28-29 will likely maintain policy rates unchanged due to resilient labor markets and consumer spending. Concerns over Fed independence grow from Governor Lisa Cook's legal battle and DOJ investigation into Chair Powell, with his term ending in May. Markets question potential rate cuts before his departure under political pressures.
US Durable Goods Orders Expected to Drop Sharply
US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) on January 26 forecast at -2.2% versus previous +6.8%, signaling weakening business investment and demand. This could trigger volatility in equities and USD, especially if core orders miss expectations.
Bank of Canada Rate Decision Looms
BoC interest rate decision on January 28 expected at 2.00%, amid slowing growth and inflation pressures. A surprise hold, cut, or hawkish commentary could move USD/CAD and Canadian bonds, with full Monetary Policy Report providing outlook.
Magnificent Seven Tech Earnings Drive US Volatility
Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and Apple report earnings this week after Intel's 17% plunge on weak AI chip guidance. Tesla shares rose 4% on Elon Musk's Davos announcements of FSD approval in Europe/China soon and robotaxi rollout.
Australia Inflation Data Critical for RBA Hike Odds
December inflation, first quarterly since monthly switch, key after strong jobs data; markets price 60% February hike chance. RBA likely needs sustained pressure before tightening.
WEF: 53% Chief Economists Expect Global Slowdown in 2026
World Economic Forum survey shows 53% anticipate weakening conditions due to high debt, asset bubbles, geopolitics, and trade disputes. Only 19% see stronger growth, with AI stocks surging but warnings of corrections.
IMF Projects Global Growth at 3.3% for 2026
IMF World Economic Outlook Update forecasts 3.3% growth in 2026, up slightly, supported by tech investment, fiscal/monetary stimulus offsetting trade shifts. OECD at 2.9%, World Bank sees benign US outlook with lower rates.
China Growth to Slow to 4.4% Amid Trade Surplus
World Bank forecasts China GDP declining from 4.9% in 2025 to 4.4% in 2026 due to subdued demand. Despite US tariffs, $1.2T trade surplus achieved; looser policy ahead of Lunar New Year.
US Markets Volatile on Geopolitics and Tariffs
S&P 500 down 0.3%, Nasdaq up 0.3%, Dow -0.5%; VIX topped 20 on tensions, dip-buying. Trump backed off EU tariff threats over Greenland, shifting focus to Fed.
Asian Financial Forum Focuses on Trade Tensions, AI, Climate
Hong Kong event January 26-27 emphasizes cooperation amid disputes, rate uncertainty, fast tech investment. Sessions on geopolitics, tariffs impacting capital markets and fintech.
EIA January STEO Forecasts Oil Markets to 2027
US EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook extends to December 2027, covering Brent prices, supply growth sources, Venezuela impacts on global oil.
Currency Shifts as Europe Dumps US Treasuries
Davos highlights Denmark pension funds selling US treasuries over Greenland threats; risk-off US vibe raises yields, cuts rate hopes. Euro, yen, CAD, renminbi may gain roles.