Latest Finance-Economy News
IMF Projects Resilient Global Growth at 3.3% for 2026
The IMF's January 2026 World Economic Outlook forecasts global growth steady at 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, matching 2025's outturn, driven by AI-related investments in North America and Asia, fiscal support, and accommodative conditions. Headline inflation is expected to decline to 3.8% in 2026 from 4.1% in 2025.
Risks include downside from AI productivity reevaluations potentially triggering market corrections.
US Economy Forecast to Expand 2.4% in 2026 Despite Trade Barriers
US growth is projected at 2.4% in 2026, up 0.3 points from October, supported by fiscal policy, lower rates, and waning trade barrier impacts after strong Q3 2025 GDP. Core inflation in the US will return to 2% target gradually amid higher tariffs.
Divergence persists with slower growth elsewhere.
Euro Area Growth to Moderate to 0.7% in 2026 with Fiscal Stimulus
Euro area growth is expected to slow to 0.7% in 2026 from 1.1% in 2025, with a slight upward revision due to new government fiscal stimulus. Projections reflect softening demand and lower energy prices.
Inflation trends show US lagging other economies in returning to targets.
Emerging Markets Growth Hovers Above 4% Amid Global Resilience
Growth in emerging market and developing economies will stay just above 4% in 2026, supported by overall global tailwinds. Leaders at Davos affirm resilience despite trade noise from Trump policies.
Focus urged on debt reduction and inequality.
Trump Threatens 100% Tariffs on Canada Over China Trade Deal
President Trump warned of 100% tariffs on all Canadian imports if Canada proceeds with a trade deal with China, targeting Governor Carney's potential role as a 'drop off port'. He claimed China would 'eat Canada alive', destroying its businesses and way of life.
This escalates amid Davos tensions.
Davos Leaders Urge Focus on Growth Amid Trump Trade Turmoil
ECB's Lagarde, IMF's Georgieva, and WTO's Okonjo-Iweala at Davos stressed ignoring Trump tariff threats to prioritize growth, debt relief, and inequality. IMF raised 2026 global growth to 3.3%, called 'beautiful but not enough' against debt burdens.
Europe needs productivity boosts and better investment climate.
Central Banks Eye Rate Decisions Amid Inflation Forecasts
Scotiabank forecasts higher inflation than BoC's for 2025-2026, with markets watching Fed speakers on persistent inflation risks. Philly Fed's Paulson prefers holding rates; others warn of price bumps.
Global GDP, inflation data, and Chinese PMIs key this week.
South African Reserve Bank Expected to Cut Rates to 6.5%
SARB consensus predicts a 25bps repo rate cut to 6.5% on Thursday, extending easing since September 2024 amid appreciating rand from gold prices near $5,000/oz. Inflation at 3.6% y/y, core 3.3%, nearing 3% target, supporting further easing.
Rand up 7% since November.
Banco Central de Chile May Cut Rates Despite Consensus Hold
Consensus expects BCCH to hold rates Tuesday, but Scotiabank predicts 25bps cut to 4.25% after late 2025 easing. Pattern slowed in 2025 with cuts spaced 5-7 months post-625bps cycle.
Recent cuts provide room amid stable conditions.
Global X Announces January 2026 ETF Distributions
Global X Investments Canada announced distributions for its ETFs, ex-dividend January 30, 2026, payable February 6. Investors can opt for cash or reinvestment; past performance not indicative of future results.
Funds carry risks including volatility from leveraged techniques.
AI Investments Drive Global Growth but Pose Downside Risks
Surging AI and tech investments offset risks, boosting North America and Asia more than others, per IMF. However, reevaluation of AI productivity could spark investment drops and financial corrections.
Stock prices of tech firms diverge sharply from others.
Canadian PM Carney Calls Trump Approach a 'Rupture' at Davos
Mark Carney labeled Trump's policies a rupture from rules-based trade order, amid tariff threats. Lagarde downplayed, stressing economic interdependence.
Leaders push Plan B alternatives amid noise.