Latest Finance-Economy News
IMF Projects Steady Global Growth at 3.3% for 2026
The IMF's January 2026 World Economic Outlook Update forecasts global growth at 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, driven by AI-related investments, fiscal support, and accommodative conditions. Inflation is expected to decline to 3.8% in 2026 from 4.1% in 2025.
Risks are tilted downside, including potential AI productivity reevaluation triggering market corrections.
US Economy to Expand 2.4% in 2026 Amid Fiscal Support
US growth is projected at 2.4% in 2026, up 0.3 points from October, supported by fiscal policy and lower rates as tariff impacts wane. Core inflation to return to 2% target gradually.
Stronger Q3 2025 GDP contributes to the upward revision.
Euro Area Growth Moderates to 0.7% in 2026
Euro area growth expected to slow to 0.7% in 2026 from 1.1% in 2025, with policy rate remaining unchanged. Emerging markets to hover above 4% growth.
Fiscal stimulus in some areas noted.
Trump Proposes 10% Credit Card Rate Cap
President's one-year cap on credit card interest at 10% draws lawmaker and potential Fed chair responses. Discussed amid broader financial policy talks.
Aims to address consumer costs.
Davos: Trump Pushes US as Crypto Capital
At Davos, Trump aims to sign crypto market structure bill soon for financial freedom pathways. Emphasizes deregulation freeing trillions in lending.
Highlights housing affordability and lower mortgage rates.
UK Publishes Basel 3.1 Capital Rules
UK Prudential Regulation Authority issues Basel 3.1 policy statement, postponing market risk component by one year. Effective January, with key timing changes.
Part of international banking policy updates.
FSB Outlines Resolution Framework Next Steps
FSB annual report previews work to operationalize resolution frameworks and review crisis preparedness. Focuses on making frameworks effective.
Global policy coordination effort.
Croatian Banker Slated for ECB Vice Presidency
Boris Vujcic poised to become ECB's No. 2 official. Key appointment in European monetary policy.
Signals leadership changes.
Yield-Bearing Stablecoins Threaten Bank Deposits
Research shows growth in yield-bearing stablecoins reduces bank deposits and lending; greater adoption worsens contraction. Paradigm mischaracterizes paper findings.
Crypto ledger impact on traditional banking.
Trump's Interventionism Risks Market Bust in 2026
Analysts warn Trump's actions, like Venezuela interference and threats to Colombia/Greenland, create uncertainty for markets. US dollar fell 10% in 2025 amid labor doubts.
Geopolitical fronts urge investor caution.
Fed Independence at Risk, Potential Inflation Reignition
Concerns over Fed loosening policy excessively, reigniting inflation above 2% target (December at 2.7%). Changes at Fed amid labor market weakness.
Morgan Stanley watches currency reactions.
AI Bubble and Stock Market Correction Fears
US/Europe stocks at highs but AI supercycle may bring volatility; Citi expects continuation with risks. Consensus for moderate 2026 gains.
Tariffs' global impacts start in 2026.