Latest Finance-Economy News
US Equity Futures Climb Ahead of Key Data and Rate Decisions
US equity futures are rising after a tech selloff, with S&P 500 futures up 0.5% and NASDAQ futures gaining similarly, as markets prepare for delayed November jobs data and rate decisions from ECB, BOE, and BOJ this week. Small caps are outperforming, rebounding from Friday's 1% drop in S&P 500 to 6827.
Investors eye a potential Santa rally into year-end.
Delayed US November Jobs Report Due Tuesday
The delayed November jobs report, impacted by the longest federal government shutdown, is set for release Tuesday amid signs of labor market softening like fewer vacancies and ADP survey showing 32,000 jobs lost. This data is crucial alongside upcoming CPI, retail sales, and PCE releases this week.
Markets brace for implications on Fed policy.
Fed Expected to Cut Rates 25bps in December with More in 2026
Markets price in a near-certain 25bps Fed rate cut at its December meeting, with two to three more anticipated, settling funds rate near 3% by end-2026. Recent third straight cut supports equities despite sticky inflation and tariff pressures.
Risks tilt toward less easing if growth exceeds expectations.
Global Growth Forecasts Upgraded Amid Resilience
State Street raises global growth to 3.0% for 2025, citing better US, China, and eurozone trajectories, with 2.9% in 2026. BBVA notes upside surprises from AI investment boom and contained tariff effects.
OECD forecasts easing to 2.3% as tariffs weigh, but trade holds resilient.
S&P 500 Forecast to Exceed 7,500 by End-2026
Wall Street banks surveyed by FT predict S&P 500 above 7,500 by 2026 end, driven by double-digit gains from Trump tax cuts, lower rates, and AI growth. Corporate earnings beat expectations, up 17% YTD despite tariff turbulence.
Momentum favors cyclicals over tech.
Tariffs Push Inflation Higher but Growth Holds
US tariffs raise imported goods costs, trending inflation higher and limiting Fed easing, with manufacturing facing higher inputs and labor shortages from immigration enforcement. Economic fallout milder than feared, with effective rates negotiated lower.
China fixed-asset investment fell record 1.7% amid slowdown.
ECB, BOE, BOJ Rate Decisions This Week
European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan rate decisions loom this week, with ECB potentially cutting further as eurozone growth at 0.5% q/q in Q3. BOE faces fiscal strains; global banks calibrate amid resilient trade.
Inflation below 2% target into 2026.
US Economy Grew 3.8% Annualized in Q2 2025
US GDP grew 3.8% annualized in Q2 after revisions, with consumer spending up 2.5% and business investment 4.4%, despite trade distortions. Q3 global growth surprised upside across regions.
Fiscal expansion and AI capex to boost 2026.
China Growth Slows but Hits 5% Target Amid Property Crisis
China GDP growth at 5.3% y/y H1 slowed to 4.8% Q3, projected to hit 5% target despite property crisis and weak demand. Exports solid despite US tariffs, but deflation persists.
Private consumption support modest.
Fiscal Pressures Mount Globally Including US Debt Milestone
US spends more on debt service than defense for first time; France, UK, Korea, Japan face deficits risking volatility. Shutdown weighed on Q4 growth, reversing in Q1 2026.
German fiscal measures and defense spending aid Europe.
Super Week for US Data: CPI, Retail Sales, PCE Ahead
This week features Retail Sales (Oct) Tuesday, CPI Thursday (3.0% YoY exp.), Jobless Claims, Crude Oil Inventories, and Core PCE Friday. Critical for stock market amid government shutdown data gaps.
Inflation trending unfavorably above target.
AI Boom Drives US Investment Despite Valuation Worries
AI capex surge supports growth, with S&P services PMI upside; offsets tariff and inflation concerns. Momentum strategies work as in Oct 2024 parallel.
Earnings fastest in four years.